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    甘肃南部山区城镇地质灾害风险双控模式初探

    Preliminary study on the “Point−surface Dual Control” mode for geological hazard risk in typical mountainous towns of Gansu Province

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 甘肃省是中国地质灾害高发地区之一,科学构建地质灾害风险“点面双控”模式是防灾减灾的关键。
      研究方法 以陇南礼县龙林镇为例,在现场精细化勘查测绘、多期遥感数据建模、室内试验测试及数值模拟分析的基础上,阐述了以地质灾害风险识别、成灾模式研究、危险性分析、易损性评价、风险评价和风险防控对策建议等6大步骤的典型城镇地质灾害风险管控技术流程,介绍了城镇风险斜坡半定量风险评价过程,形成了基于动力过程的单体地质灾害定量风险评价方法和地质灾害风险双控模式。
      研究结果 (1)研究区地质灾害类型主要为滑坡、泥石流2种,共发育地质灾害隐患点71处,其中有15处直接威胁人民生命财产安全,总结了3类滑坡成灾模式并建立了地质早期识别标志;(2)基于不同降水频率(5%、2%、1%)地质灾害风险区划表明,在不同降水频率下75.23%的区域始终保持低风险,24.38%的区域风险等级随降水频率的降低而增大,0.39%的区域始终保持极高风险;(3)基于风险评价结果,提出了可用于城镇和具体灾害点减灾的风险综合双控建议。
      结论 本研究可为复杂山区城镇防灾减灾、国土空间规划管控与用途管制提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract:
      This paper is the result of geological hazard survey engineering.
      Objective Gansu Province is among the regions in China with a high incidence of geological hazards. The scientific establishment of the "point−surface dual control" mode for geological hazard risks is crucial for hazard prevention and mitigation.
      Method Taking Longlin Town as an example, this paper presents the technical process for managing and controlling geological hazard risks in typical urban areas based ondetailed on−site refined survey and mapping, multi−phase remote sensing data modelling, laboratory test, and numerical simulation analysis. The process includes six steps: geological hazard risk identification, disaster mode research, risk analysis, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, risk prevention and control countermeasures. Additionally, it introduces the semi−quantitative risk assessment process of urban risk slope. A quantitative risk assessment method for single geological hazard based on dynamic process, as well as the "point−surface dual control" mode for geological hazard risk have also been established.
      Results (1) The primarygeological hazards identified in the study area are landslide and debris flows, with a total of 71 hidden hazard points, 15 of which pose direct threats topublic safety and property. Three landslide hazard modes are summarized, and geological early identification signs are established. (2) Risk zoning based ondifferent precipitation frequencies (5%, 2%, 1%) reveals that 75.23% of the regions consistently maintain low risk levels, 24.38% exhibit increased risk levelsas precipitation frequency decreases, and 0.39% remain in high risk levels. (3) Based on the risk assessment results, a comprehensive dual control strategy for hazard risk reduction in towns and specific disaster hazardsis proposed.
      Conclusions This research provides technical support for hazard prevention and mitigation, as well as for land use planning and management in complex mountain towns.

       

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