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    全球钾盐资源特征及市场发展态势分析

    Characteristics and market development trend of global potash resources

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 近年来,国际局势复杂多变导致钾盐资源供应链稳定存在较大风险,进一步助推全球粮食危机。了解全球钾盐资源特征及市场发展趋势,有助于全球钾盐行业可持续发展提供基础性认识,对于保障中国钾盐资源稳定供应具有重要意义。
      研究方法 本文对全球钾盐资源成矿类型、时空分布和生产技术等特征进行总结,分析全球钾盐资源供需格局和价格走势,并对保障中国钾盐资源供应安全提出建议。
      研究结果 全球钾盐资源丰富,分布极不均匀,进而导致生产端呈现寡头垄断格局,需求端集中在中国、巴西、美国、印度等人口农业大国,供需严重错配,主要依靠贸易调节。近十多年来,全球钾盐资源一直处于供大于求的局面,形成以中国、印度、巴西和东南亚地区为消费主体的四大定价中心。
      结论 当前,随着世界各国对粮食安全重视以及国际局势“不确定性”问题加剧,钾盐资源需求稳步上涨、供给端增长受限及生产成本增加,将进一步推动未来钾盐价格上涨。中国作为一个严重缺钾的农业大国,应进一步加大国内钾盐勘探投入、加强选矿工艺技术研究、加快钾盐国际合作,保障国内钾盐资源稳定供应。

       

      Abstract:
      This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
      Objective In recent years, the complex and changeable international situation has led to greater risks to the stability of the supply chain of potash resources, further boosting the global food crisis. Understanding the characteristics and market development trend of global potash resources is helpful to provide basic understanding for the sustainable development of the global potash salt industry, and is of great significance for ensuring the stable supply of potash resources in China.
      Methods This paper summarizes the metallogenic types, temporal and spatial distribution and production technology of global potash resources, analyzes the supply-demand structure and price trend of global potash resources, and puts forward suggestions on ensuring the supply security of potash resources in China.
      Results The global potash resources are rich and the distribution is very uneven, which leads to an oligopolistic pattern in the production side, and the demand side is concentrated in China, Brazil, the United States, India and other populous agricultural countries, with a serious mismatch between supply and demand, mainly relying on trade adjustment. For more than a decade, the global potash resources have been in a situation of oversupply, forming four pricing centers with China, India, Brazil and Southeast Asia as the main consumers.
      Conclusions At present, with the attention of countries around the world to food security and the intensification of the "uncertainty" in the international situation, the steady rise in demand for potash resources, the limited growth of the supply side and the increase in production costs will further promote the rise of potash prices in the future. As a big agricultural country with serious potassium shortage, China should further increase domestic investment in potash exploration, strengthen research on mineral processing technology, accelerate international cooperation on potash, and ensure the stable supply of domestic potash resources.

       

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