This paper is the result of geological survey engineering.

Objective As the world’s largest consumer of potash, China faces long–term challenges of supply–demand imbalance and heavy reliance on imports due to its poor domestic resource endowment and low–grade deposits. Conducting research on the supply–demand dynamics and security assurance of potash in China is therefore of critical importance for safeguarding national potash security and addressing international challenges.

Methods This study systematically analyzes the current production status and supply–demand situation of potash resources in China. By combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, it employs the sectoral forecasting method and the grey system theory (GM1,1) model to project China’s potash consumption from 2025 to 2030.

Results The forecast results indicate that the values derived from the grey system theory GM (1,1) model closely align with the medium–growth scenario of the sectoral forecasting method. China’s potash (K₂O) consumption is projected to reach 16.3567 million tons, 16.8714 million tons, 17.4030 million tons, 17.9519 million tons, 18.5189 million tons, and 19.1045 million tons in the years 2025 through 2030, respectively.

Conclusions Using the sectoral analysis method based on end–use consumption and the grey system model, this study projects that China’s potash consumption will continue to grow from 2025 to 2030, overturning the declining trend predicted by traditional models. This growth is primarily driven by the resilience of agricultural demand, the promotion of new types of potash fertilizers, and the expansion of non–agricultural consumption. Although supply stability has been achieved through the diversification of import sources, the persistently high level of external dependence and the fundamental reality of resource scarcity remain unchanged. To ensure potash security, future efforts should focus on three key pathways—technological innovation, overseas potash exploration and development, and comprehensive resource utilization—to establish a more robust supply assurance system.