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    基于多源信息融合的三峡库区滑坡研究20年进展与展望:从成灾机理到智能防控

    Twenty years of progress and prospects in landslide research in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area using multi-source information integration: From disaster mechanisms to intelligent prevention and mitigation

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 鉴于目前三峡库区大规模滑坡研究缺乏系统综述和前瞻性分析,本文旨在全面总结三峡库区滑坡研究的演进历程与核心进展,识别关键科学问题与技术瓶颈,并提出未来重点攻关方向。
      研究方法 创新性地将文献计量学的宏观图谱分析与传统综述的深度剖析相结合,系统梳理2003—2024年文献,从地质背景、变形机理、监测预警、风险评价与防治措施等5个维度总结研究现状。
      研究结果 库区滑坡发育受构造、岩性、水文及人类活动共同控制,变形机理核心在于库水位波动引发的“浮托减重、动水压力、水–力–化学劣化”三大效应的非线性耦合。监测预警技术正从“点–面”结合向“天–空–地–智”一体化演进;机器学习广泛应用于风险评价;防治措施日益强调工程与生态协同。然而,当前研究仍面临多场耦合机制不清、预警模型泛化能力不足、动态风险评价体系欠缺等挑战。
      结论 未来需聚焦多场耦合致灾机理与极端工况模拟、基于数字孪生的智能预警与决策系统、耦合链生灾害效应的多尺度动态风险评价、工程与生态协同的绿色韧性防治技术四大方向,构建“监测–预测–管控”一体化的防灾减灾技术体系,推动库区滑坡灾害防治向精细化、智能化和生态化发展。

       

      Abstract:
      This paper is the result of geological survey engineering.
      Objective In light of the current lack of systematic review and prospective analysis of large-scale landslide research in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, this paper aims to comprehensively summarize the evolutionary trajectory and core advancements of landslide research in this region, identify key scientific issues and technical bottlenecks, and propose priority directions for future research.
      Methods An innovative approach integrating macroscopic bibliometric mapping with in-depth traditional review is employed. Chinese and English literature published between 2003 and 2024 is systematically examined across five dimensions: geological setting, deformation mechanisms, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, and mitigation measures.
      Results Landslide development in the reservoir area is jointly controlled by tectonics, lithology, hydrology, and human activities. The deformation mechanism fundamentally involves the nonlinear coupling of three primary effects induced by reservoir water-level fluctuations: buoyancy-induced weight reduction, hydrodynamic pressure, and hydro-mechanical-chemical deterioration. Monitoring and early warning technologies are transitioning from “point-surface” integration toward “space-ai-ground-intelligence” systems. Machine learning is extensively applied in risk assessment, while mitigation measures increasingly emphasize engineering-ecology synergy. Nevertheless, current research confronts challenges including unclear multi-field coupling mechanisms, inadequate generalization capability of early warning models, and the absence of dynamic risk assessment systems
      Conclusions Future efforts should concentrate on four major directions: multi-field coupled disaster mechanisms and extreme scenario simulation; intelligent early warning and decision-making systems based on digital twins; multi-scale dynamic risk assessment incorporating cascading disaster effects; and green, resilient mitigation technologies integrating engineering and ecological approaches. Establishing an integrated “monitoring-prediction-management” technical system will advance landslide disaster prevention in the reservoir area toward refinement, intelligence, and ecological sustainability.

       

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