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    相似类比面积丰度法估算油页岩资源潜力——以茂名盆地为例

    The application of the acreage bearing likelihood ratio method to assessing oil shale resources: A case study of Maoming basin

    • 摘要: 提要:应用相似类比面积丰度法估算低勘探程度盆地油页岩资源量,简便、易行。结合茂名断陷盆地油页岩发育特征,依据油页岩的成矿富集机制,优选主控油页岩生成富集的主要地质参数作为模型区与评价区的相似类比面积丰度参数;二态定性量化不同类型地质参数,求取评价区类比系数;结合模型区资源丰度分布函数,估算茂名盆地油页岩资源量。结果表明: 采用相似类比面积丰度系数面积丰度法预测茂名盆地油页岩资源,在概率为65%时,其预测资源相当于第1次“全国油页岩资源评价”估算的查明资源(包括探明的、控制的和推断的资源);概率为50%时,茂名盆地预测资源相当第1次“全国油页岩资源评价”估算的查明资源+预测资源。因此,经对比验证,相似类比面积丰度法预测断陷湖盆油页岩资源具有可行性,能有效预测中、低勘探程度盆地油页岩资源量。

       

      Abstract: Abstract:The acreage bearing likelihood ratio method was adopted to assess oil shale resources in the fault depression basin. This method is simple and convenient. Main geological parameters controlling the generation and enrichment of oil shale was optimized in terms of the development characteristics of oil shale and its metallogeny and enrichment mechanisms in the fault depression basin. Then the analogy coefficients of the assessment area were figured out by quantifying the qualitative binary status of these geological parameters. Finally, the authors assessed oil shale resources of the assessment area in term of the distribution function of oil shale resource abundance of the anatomy area. The results show that oil shale forecast resources of Maoming basin are equivalent to the identification resources from the first “National Oil Shale Evaluation” at the probability of 65%, and the oil shale forecast resources of Maoming basin are equivalent to the identification and forecast resources from the first “National Oil Shale Evaluation” at the probability of 50%.. Therefore, the acreage bearing likelihood ratio method can effectively assess oil shale resources of the basins with middle-low exploration extent.

       

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