中国银矿资源特征及新能源背景下需求分析
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1.中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所;2.中国地质调查局发展研究中心;3.中国价格协会冶金价格分会;4.冶金工业信息中心

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中国地质调查局项目(编号:DD20221694)


The characteristics and demand analysis of silver resources in China under the background of new energy
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Affiliation:

1.Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,CAGS;2.Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey;3.Metallurgical Price Branch of China Price Association;4.Metallurgical Industry Information Center

Fund Project:

the projects of China Geological Survey (No: DD20221694)

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    摘要:

    【研究目的】银作为重要的贵金属,兼具工业属性和金融属性,对于促进国家经济和社会发展至关重要。因此,系统性地分析中国银矿资源特征,研究未来需求趋势,对中国银产业减排布局、资源安全具有重要意义。【研究方法】本文从银产业发展的角度入手,通过分析中国银的应用、地质、供需和市场等特征,总结了中国银矿的资源现状。在此基础上,根据工业银和非工业银的需求驱动差异,运用S-curve和ARIMA模型预测了2022-2035年中国银的需求。【研究结果】根据银矿的资源现状和需求预测结果,得出如下认识:(1)中国银矿具有“四多四少”的地质特征,即总量多,可利用资源少;小矿多、大矿少;贫矿多、富矿少;共伴生矿床多,独立矿床少;(2)随着银应用领域的不断增长,国内的矿山资源和再生资源已经不能满足需求,需进口银矿产品和其他精矿(用于生产副产银,如铅精矿、锌精矿等)来补充缺口;(3)2022-2035年,中国银的需求将持续增长,从5800t增长到9500t,年均增长率约为3.7%;(4)2022-2035年,中国工业银需求将迎来较快增长,从3800t增长到7000t,年均增长率为4.4%,光伏是拉动工业银需求增长的主要领域;(5)2022-2035年,中国非工业银的需求将缓慢增长,从2000t增长到2500t,年均增长率为1.7%。【结论】基于以上研究,为了更好地促进银产业发展,提出了如下建议:(1)高度重视并提升银在未来国民经济中的地位和作用;(2)多手段保障银矿资源供应能力;(3)加大技术创新,开展深加工,提高工业银的产品附加值,为能源转型和高端制造提供保障;(4)建立国家与民间双重银储备与保障体系,避免银价大起大落。

    Abstract:

    【Objective】Silver, as an important precious metal, has both industrial and financial properties and is crucial to promote national economic and social development. Therefore, it is important to analyze systematically the characteristics of silver resources and demand trends for emission reduction and resource security in China.【Methods】From the perspective of the development of the silver industry, the characteristics of the application, geology, supply and demand and market of silver are summarized in China. Based on this, according to the demand driven difference between industrial silver and non industrial silver, the demand of silver is predicted using S-curve and ARIMA models in China from 2022-2035.【Results】 Based on the resource status and demand forecast results of silver mines, the following results are obtained: (1) Silver mines have the geological characteristics of "four more and four less". It means that the total amount of resources is large and the available resources are few; more small deposits, less large deposits; more lean ore, less rich ore; more concomitant deposits, fewer independent deposits; (2) With the continuous growth of silver application field, domestic mine resources and renewable resources can not meet the demand, so it is necessary to import silver ore and other concentrates (used to produce silver by-products, such as lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, etc.) to supplement the gap; (3) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for silver in China will continue to grow, from 5800 t to 9500 t, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.7%; (4) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for industrial silver in China will grow rapidly, from 3800 t to 7000 t, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. Photovoltaic systems are the main field driving the growth of industrial silver demand; (5) From 2022 to 2035, the demand for non industrial silver in China will grow slowly, from 2000 t to 2500 t, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%. 【Conclusions】Based on the above research results, in order to promote the development of the silver industry chain, the following suggestions are put forward: (1) The position and role of silver in the future national economy should be paid more attention; (2) A variety of ways should be adopted to ensure the supply capacity of silver resources; (3) The added value of industrial silver products should be improved to provide guarantee for energy transformation and high-end manufacturing by increasing technological innovation and carrying out deep processing; (4) The national and private silver reserve and security system should be established to avoid large fluctuations in silver prices.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-04
  • 录用日期:2023-05-03
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