甘肃省典型山区城镇地质灾害风险双控模式初探
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1.中国地质科学院;2.中国地质调查局 水文地质环境地质调查中心;3.中国地质调查局 西安地质调查中心;4.甘肃省地质环境监测院

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P642.22

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Preliminary study on the“point-surface dual control” model of geological hazard risk in typical mountainous towns in Gansu province
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1.Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology,CGS;2.Xi '3.'4.an Geological Survey Center of China Geological Survey;5.Geo-Environment Monitoring Institute of Gansu Province,Lanzhou

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    摘要:

    提要:【研究目的】甘肃省是我国地质灾害隐患点发育数量最多、发生频次最高、风险防范最难的地区之一,为提升该区城镇地质灾害风险防控水平,科学合理构建地质灾害风险“点面双控”模式是防灾减灾的关键。【研究方法】以陇南礼县龙林镇集镇区为例,在现场精细化勘查测绘、多期遥感数据建模、室内试验测试及数值模拟分析的基础上,阐述了以地质灾害风险识别、成灾模式研究、危险性分析、易损性评价、风险评价和风险防控对策建议等6大步骤为主的典型城镇地质灾害风险管控技术框架流程,介绍了城镇风险斜坡半定量风险评价过程,形成了基于动力过程的单体地质灾害定量风险评价方法,初步探讨了地质灾害风险双控模式。【研究结果】(1)研究区地质灾害类型主要为滑坡、泥石流2种,共发育地质灾害隐患点71处,其中有15处直接威胁人民生命财产安全,总结了3类滑坡成灾模式并建立了地质早期识别标志;(2)基于灾害动力过程的不同降水频率(5%、2%、1%)地质灾害风险区划表明,在不同降水频率下75.23%的区域始终保持低风险,24.38%的区域风险等级随降水频率的降低而增大,0.39%的区域始终保持极高风险;(3)基于风险评价结果,提出了可用于集镇区和具体灾害点减灾的风险源头控制内容和风险防控技术、灾害防治的工程与非工程措施等风险综合双控建议。【结论】相关研究可为复杂山区城镇防灾减灾、国土空间规划管控与用途管制提供技术支撑,对形成不同尺度地质灾害“隐患点+风险区”双控体系具有一定参考意义。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]Gansu Province is one of the regions with the largest number of potential geological hazard points, the highest frequency of occurrence,and the most difficult risk prevention in China. To improve the level of urban geological hazard risk prevention and control in this region, the key to disaster prevention and mitigation is to scientifically and reasonably construct the "point-surface dual control" mode of geological hazard risk. [Method]Taking Longlin Town, Lixian County, Longnan City as an example, based on on-site fine survey and mapping, multi-phase remote sensing data modeling, indoor test, and numerical simulation analysis, the paper expounds the technical framework process of geological disaster risk management and control in typical cities and towns based on six steps, namely, geological disaster risk identification, disaster mode research, risk analysis, vulnerability evaluation, risk evaluation and risk prevention and control countermeasures, This paper introduces the semi-quantitative risk assessment process of urban risk slope, forms the quantitative risk assessment method of single geological hazard based on dynamic process, and preliminarily discusses the double-control mode of geological hazard risk. [Results]1) The main types of geological hazards in the study area are landslide and debris flow, with a total of 71 hidden danger points of geological hazards developed, 15 of which directly threaten the safety of people's lives and property. The three types of landslide hazard models are summarized and the geological early identification signs are established; (2) The geological hazard risk zoning of different precipitation frequencies (5%, 2%, 1%) based on the disaster dynamic process shows that under different precipitation frequencies, 75.23% of the regions always maintain low risk, 24.38% of the regional risk level increases with the reduction of precipitation frequency, and 0.39% of the regions always maintain high risk; (3) Based on the results of risk assessment, the risk source control content, risk prevention and control technology, and engineering and non-engineering measures for disaster prevention and control that can be used for disaster reduction in market towns and specific disaster points are proposed. [Conclusions]Relevant research can provide technical support for disaster prevention and reduction in complex mountainous cities and towns, land space planning control, and use of the control, and has certain reference significance for the formation of a dual control system of "hidden danger points + risk areas" for geological disasters of different scales.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-20
  • 最后修改日期:2023-03-23
  • 录用日期:2023-04-21
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