Ecological priority-based source-division evaluation and application on water resources carrying capacity: Take Baoding plain of Hebei Province as a case study

Water resource is an important factor to ensure regional development and a key factor to maintain ecological environment. As an important region in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the water resource carrying capacity of Baoding Plain is of great significance to regional ecology and social and economic development. Based on the basic concept of ecological priority, according to the supply and utilization relationship of different water sources and different water types, the water resource carrying capacity of Baoding Plain was evaluated separately by using the method of combination of quota calculation and linear weighted objective programming, and compared with the local planning, the water resource carrying capacity was classified. The results show that on the basis of guaranteeing ecological water and agricultural irrigation water, under conditions of persistent dry years, total available water of urban life and industrial production will be 463 million m³ in 2025, lacking of 52 million m³, and total available water will be 696 million m³ in 2030, lacking of 56 million m³. Under conditions of persistent median water years, total available water of urban life and industrial production will be 581 million m³ in 2025, surplus 66 million m³, and total available water will be 814 million m³ in 2030, surplus 62 million m³. This research can provide scientific basis for development planning in Baoding Plain.