Water resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its co-evolution trend with social economy: A comparative study with the international bay area

The current situation and evolution of water resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is crucial to the high-quality development of the region's social economy. The study focuses on the current situation of water resources in the "9 Cities +2 Municipalities" of the Greater Bay Area in recent ten years and its co-evolution trend with social economy. The results show that the present water supply in the Greater Bay Area mainly relies on surface water, and the distribution of water resources is not equilibrated with regional economic development. As the core engine of regional development, Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen (extremely short of water) and Guangzhou (severely short of water) have a low per capita water resources. Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, Dongguan (>80%) and Shenzhen (>40%) have a high degree of water resources development and utilization, and the pressure of water resources supply and demand is large. The synergetic law between the current situation of water resources utilization and social economy in the Greater Bay area, resulted from attribution analysis, indicates that industrial structure influences the water consumption structure and controls the water consumption efficiency. The industrial structure and development trend in the region and the comparative analysis with the bay area in the world verify the "Petty Clark theorem" in the theory of industrial structure. With the continuous economic development of the Greater Bay Area, the industrial structure will be optimized forward, water consumption efficiency will increase, and per capita water consumption will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for urban public water and domestic water will continue to rise, and the water supply facilities, water quality and water supply security in the Greater Bay Area need to be ensured to meet the future social and economic development demands.