This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Objective Chromium, as one of the critical minerals in China, supports the development of China's emerging industries. China is short of chromium ore resources, poor resource endowment and low production. For a long time, the chrome ore has been highly dependent on foreign countries. It is important for the healthy and sustainable development of chromium ore resource industry to study the future supply and demand of chrome ore.
Methods This paper summarizes the geology, spatial distribution, resource reserves and other characteristics of chromium deposits in China, and analyzes the historical data of the development and utilization of chromium resources in China. On this basis, the chromium supply in China is analyzed and predicted. And the stainless steel production and chromium demand in 2021−2035 in China are predicted under three scenarios, namely high, medium and low, by using chromium sector consumption method, S−curve of per capita stainless steel production, ARIMA model method (stainless steel) and other prediction methods.
Results (1) The production of chromium in China will be 150,000−200,000 tons, and the secondary chromium will be 1.82−2.84 million tons from 2021 to 2035; (2) Under the medium scenario, the demand for chromium in China from 2021 to 2035 is projected to follow an increasing and then decreasing trend, with the peak occurring in 2030. And, the per capita stainless steel production will keep an upward trend from 2021 to 2030, and will reach its peak in 2030. At that time, the per capita stainless steel production will be 35 kg, the stainless steel production will be 50.05 million tons, and the chromium demand will be 9.45 million production; After that, it will gradually decline. By 2035, the per capita stainless steel production will drop to 30 kg, the stainless steel production will be 42.8 million tons, and the chromium demand will be 8.07 million tons; (3) The supply and demand situation is severe in China from 2021 to 2035, and the external dependence rate of chromium will exceed 99%. If secondary chromium production is used, the external dependence rate of chromium will drop to more than 69%.
Conclusions The supply and demand situation of chromium in China will still be severe, and the gap still needs to be supplemented by a large number of imported ores from 2021−2035. On this basis, it is proposed to strengthen the geological exploration of chromium ore, strive to achieve a breakthrough in chromium ore prospecting, attach importance to the secondary chromium recovery, develop the secondary chromium recovery industry, strengthen the reserves of chromium ore products, ensure the safety of chromium ore product supply, optimize the structure of chromium ore products, and make use of overseas chromium ore resources and products. The conclusions and suggestions formed in this paper are of practical significance to the compilation of mineral resources planning and the formulation of chromium mineral resources management policies in China.
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