The determination of the index system and weights for the development optimism of oil shale potential areas

Abstract：The development optimism of oil shale is carried out in accordance with a series of parameters, with the purpose of determining the sequence of oil shale resource development in future by adopting the aggregate index evaluation method. It provides scientific basis for strategic development planning and rational exploitation of oil shale resources so as to achieve the optimal decision. The index system for development optimism of the oil shale potential areas is constituted by a series of progressive parameters and includes two restricted aspects, three restricted conditions and nine restricted elements. The weights are determined by the Delphi method and the expert questionnaire method. The weight of condition in resources is 0.45, in which the weighted mean oil content is 0.15, the reserves possess 0.15, the resource abundance is 0.10, and the associated minerals possess 0.05. The weight of production condition is 0.35, in which the weighted mean technical recoverable ratio is 0.15, the average thickness of the ore bed is 0.12, and the average buried depth of the ore bed is 0.08. The weight of development condition is 0.2, in which the exploration intensity is 0.15, and the geographical circumstance is 0.05. The preferred parameters are divided into four grades, which are given the fractional values by the median method.