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引用本文:王涛,刘甲美,栗泽桐,辛鹏,石菊松,吴树仁. 中国地震滑坡危险性评估及其对国土空间规划的影响研究[J]. 中国地质, 2021, 48(1): 21-39.
WANG Tao,LIU Jiamei,LI Zetong,XIN Peng,SHI Jusong,WU Shuren. Seismic landslide hazard assessment of China and its impact on national territory spatial planning[J]. Geology in China, 2021, 48(1): 21-39(in Chinese with English abstract).
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中国地震滑坡危险性评估及其对国土空间规划的影响研究
王涛1,2, 刘甲美1,2, 栗泽桐1,2, 辛鹏1,2, 石菊松3, 吴树仁1,2
1.中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081;2.新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室, 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081;3.中国地质环境监测院, 北京 100081
摘要:
中国是世界上地震滑坡灾害最为严重的国家之一。考虑地质构造、地形地貌、地层岩性、河流、地震动参数等6类影响因素,针对50年超越概率10%的抗震设防水准,分别开展了基于信息量模型和Newmark模型的地震滑坡危险性评估。基于最不利原则对两项结果进行地震滑坡危险性综合分区,揭示了中国地震滑坡高危险区集中在南北构造带、青藏高原周缘、鄂尔多斯周缘、天山山脉、台湾山脉等5个活动地块边界或地貌过渡带的空间分布特征。通过地震滑坡危险对主要山区城市的影响分析,显示:34个省级行政单元中的云南、四川、甘肃、台湾4省区受影响严重; 370个主要城市中的48个城市受影响严重,其中44个城市有活动断裂穿越;9类主体功能规划区中,国家和省级优化开发区域总体较适于城市开发建设;25个经济区与城市群中,总体较适于开发建设,但是滇中、关天、成渝、兰西等4个经济区与城市群受影响严重;14个集中连片特困地区中,滇西边境、乌蒙、秦巴、六盘等4个地区受影响严重,深度贫困区的"三州"受影响严重。这些区域需要在地质灾害防治和国土空间规划中予以特别关注。
关键词:  地震滑坡  危险性评估  信息量模型  Newmark位移模型  国土空间规划
DOI:10.12029/gc20210102
分类号:P315.5;P642.22;TU98
基金项目:国家十三五重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1504601)、国家自然科学基金(41702343、41572313)、中国地质调查项目(DD20190717、DD2016027)共同资助。
Seismic landslide hazard assessment of China and its impact on national territory spatial planning
WANG Tao1,2, LIU Jiamei1,2, LI Zetong1,2, XIN Peng1,2, SHI Jusong3, WU Shuren1,2
1.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Crustal Stability Assessment, Institute of Geomechanics, CAGS, Beijing 100081, China;3.China Institute for GeoEnvironmental Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
China is one of the countries with the most serious earthquake induced landslide disasters in the world. Considering geological structure, landform, stratigraphic lithology, river and ground motion parameters, and aiming at the seismic fortification level exceeding the probability of 10% in 50 years, the hazard assessment of seismic landslide based on information value and Newmark displacement model were carried out respectively. Based on the most unfavorable principle, a comprehensive zonation of the seismic landslide hazard reveals that in China, the high hazard areas of seismic landslides are concentrated in the boundaries of five active plate boundaries or geomorphic transition zones, such as the north-south tectonic belt, the periphery of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the periphery of Ordos, the Tianshan Mountain range and the Taiwan Mountain range. The analysis of the impact of seismic landslide hazard on cities in mountainous areas reveals that Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu and Taiwan, among the 34 provinces, are seriously affected, and 48 of the 370 major cities are severely affected, and 44 of them have active faults crossing. It is summarized that among the 9 national development priority zones, the national and provincial optimized development zones are generally suitable for urban development and construction; the 25 urban agglomeration and economic zone are relatively suitable for urban development and construction, but the central Yunnan, Chengdu-Chongqing, Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomerations and Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone are seriously affected by seismic landslide hazard. Among the 14 concentrated contiguous severe poverty areas, the western Yunnan border, Wumeng, Qinba and Liupan areas are seriously affected by seismic landslide hazard; the three deep poverty state areas, such as the Liangshan prefecture of Sichuan Province, Nujiang Prefecture of Yunnan Province and Linxia Prefecture, Gansu Province, are also seriously affected. It reminds us that these regions require special attention in geological disaster prevention and national territory spatial planning. The results can provide reference for urban development, land-use plan and detailed seismic landslide risk management in national scale.
Key words:  seismic landslide  hazard assessment  information value model  Newmark displacement model  national territory spatial planning