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引用本文:岳高凡,王贵玲,马峰,朱喜,张汉雄. 地热规模化开发断层滑动概率评估——以雄安新区深部岩溶热储为例[J]. 中国地质, 2021, 48(5): 1382-1391.
YUE Gaofan,WANG Guiling,MA Feng,ZHU Xi,ZHANG Hanxiong. Evaluation of fault slip probability of geothermal large-scale development: A case study of deep karst geothermal reservoir in Xiong'an New Area[J]. Geology in China, 2021, 48(5): 1382-1391(in Chinese with English abstract).
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地热规模化开发断层滑动概率评估——以雄安新区深部岩溶热储为例
岳高凡1,2,3, 王贵玲1,2, 马峰1,2, 朱喜1,2, 张汉雄1,2
1.中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所, 河北 石家庄 050061;2.自然资源部地热与干热岩勘查开发技术创新中心, 河北 石家庄 050061;3.中国地质大学(武汉), 湖北 武汉 430074
摘要:
雄安新区地热资源丰富,具有广阔的规模化开发利用前景,对于实现"绿色雄安"具有重要意义。许多学者的研究集中在地质结构探测、地热资源量评价、地壳稳定性等方面,关于深部岩溶热储规模化开发可能引起的断层滑动研究薄弱。本文在地热地质综合调查的基础上,基于地质力学理论,采用蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法,评价雄安新区主要断层特征(走向、倾角、滑动摩擦系数等)、地应力分布(孔隙压力、最大/最小/垂直主应力大小及方向等),量化雄安新区天然断层在规模化开发利用情况下的激活可能性,结果显示已探明断层在天然、规模化回灌和水力压裂条件下的最大滑动趋势分别为0.26、0.27和0.40,地热开发不会引起断层激活。本研究树立了地热规模化开发的信心,可为雄安新区地热资源安全利用提供支撑。
关键词:  地热  规模化开发利用  断层滑动趋势  蒙特卡洛模拟  地质调查工程  雄安新区
DOI:10.12029/gc20210505
分类号:P314.3
基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目“冀中坳陷深部碳酸盐岩热储调查评价”(DD20190555)及国家自然科学基金项目(41807208)联合资助。
Evaluation of fault slip probability of geothermal large-scale development: A case study of deep karst geothermal reservoir in Xiong'an New Area
YUE Gaofan1,2,3, WANG Guiling1,2, MA Feng1,2, ZHU Xi1,2, ZHANG Hanxiong1,2
1.Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050061, Hebei, China;2.Technology Innovation Center of Geothermal & Hot Dry Rock Exploration and Development, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shijiazhuang 050061, Hebei, China;3.China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, Hubei China
Abstract:
Xiongan New Area is rich in geothermal resources and has broad prospects for large-scale development and utilization, which is of great significance to the realization of "green Xiongan". Many scholars have focused their research on geological structure exploration, resource evaluation, crustal stability, etc. However, the study on the possible fault sliding caused by the large-scale development of deep karst thermal storage is weak. On the basis of geomechanical theory and geothermal geological survey, Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method was used to evaluate the characteristics of main faults (strike, dip, slip friction coefficient, etc.) and geostress distribution (pore pressure, maximum/minimum/vertical principal stress magnitude and direction, etc.) in Xiongan New area for quantifying the activation possibility of natural faults under large-scale development and utilization. The results show that the maximum slip trends of proven faults under natural, large-scale recharge and hydraulic fracturing conditions are 0.26, 0.27 and 0.40, respectively. Geothermal development will not cause fault activation. The study establishes confidence in geothermal development and provides support for safe geothermal use in Xiong'an New Area.
Key words:  geothermal  large-scale development  probability of fault slip  Monte Carlo simulation  geological survey engineering  Xiong'an New Area